Factors Influencing COVID-19 Risk: Insights From Molnupiravir Exposure-Response Modeling of Clinical Outcomes.

Molnupiravir (MOV) is an oral antiviral for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in outpatient settings. This analysis investigated the relationship between ß-D-N4-hydroxycytidine (NHC) pharmacokinetics and clinical outcomes in patients with mild to moderate COVID-19 in the phase III part of the randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled MOVe-OUT trial. Logistic regression models of the dependency of outcomes on exposures and covariates were constructed using a multistep process. Influential covariates were identified first using placebo arm data, followed by assessment of exposure-dependency in drug effect using data from both the placebo and MOV arms. The exposure-response (E-R) analysis included 1,313 participants; 630 received MOV and 683 received placebo. Baseline viral load, baseline disease severity, age, weight, viral clade, active cancer, and diabetes were identified as significant determinants of response using placebo data. Absolute measures of viral load on days 5 and 10 were strong on-treatment predictors of hospitalization. An additive area under the curve (AUC)-based maximum effect (Emax ) model with a fixed Hill coefficient of 1 best represented the exposure-dependency in drug effect and the AUC50 was estimated to be 19,900 nM hour. Patients at 800 mg achieved near maximal response, which was larger than for 200 or 400 mg. The final E-R model was externally validated and predicted that the relative reduction in hospitalization with MOV treatment would vary with patient characteristics and factors in the population. In conclusion, the E-R results support the MOV dose of 800 mg twice daily to treat COVID-19. Many patient characteristics and factors impacted outcomes beyond drug exposures.

Molnupiravir for the treatment of COVID-19 in immunocompromised participants: efficacy, safety, and virology results from the phase 3 randomized, placebo-controlled MOVe-OUT trial.

PURPOSE: Immunocompromised patients have a potentially increased risk for progression to severe COVID-19 and prolonged replication of SARS-CoV-2. This post hoc analysis examined outcomes among immunocompromised participants in the MOVe-OUT trial. METHODS: In phase 3 of MOVe-OUT, non-hospitalized at-risk adults with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 were randomized to receive molnupiravir 800 mg or placebo twice daily for 5 days. Immunocompromised participants were identified based on prior/concomitant medications and/or medical history. All-cause hospitalization/death, adverse events, SARS-CoV-2 titers, infectivity, and RNA sequences were compared between immunocompromised participants who received molnupiravir or placebo and with non-immunocompromised participants. RESULTS: Fifty-five of 1408 participants were considered immunocompromised. Compared to placebo, fewer molnupiravir-treated immunocompromised participants were hospitalized/died through Day 29 (22.6% [7/31] vs. 8.3% [2/24]), with fewer adverse events (45.2% [14/31] vs. 25.0% [6/24]). A larger mean change from baseline in SARS-CoV-2 RNA was observed with molnupiravir compared to placebo in non-immunocompromised participants (least squares mean [LSM] difference Day 5: - 0.31, 95% confidence interval [CI] - 0.47 to - 0.15), while the mean change was comparable between treatment groups in immunocompromised participants (LSM difference Day 5: 0.23, 95% CI - 0.71 to 1.17). Molnupiravir treatment was associated with increased clearance of infectious virus. Increased errors in viral nucleotide sequences in post-baseline samples compared to placebo support molnupiravir's mechanism of action and were not associated with observation of novel treatment-emergent amino acid substitutions in immunocompromised participants. CONCLUSION: Although the study population was small, these data suggest that molnupiravir treatment for mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in non-hospitalized immunocompromised adults is efficacious and safe and quickly reduces infectious SARS-CoV-2. GOV REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04575597.

Effect of Molnupiravir on Biomarkers, Respiratory Interventions, and Medical Services in COVID-19 : A Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: In the MOVe-OUT trial, molnupiravir showed a clinically meaningful reduction in the risk for hospitalization or death in adults with mild to moderate COVID-19 and risk factors for progression to severe disease. OBJECTIVE: To identify other potential clinical benefits of molnupiravir versus placebo. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of the randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 3 component of MOVe-OUT. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04575597). SETTING: 107 sites globally. PARTICIPANTS: 1433 nonhospitalized adults aged 18 years or older with mild to moderate COVID-19. INTERVENTION: Molnupiravir, 800 mg, or placebo every 12 hours for 5 days. MEASUREMENTS: Changes from baseline in C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration and oxygen saturation (Spo 2), need for respiratory interventions (including invasive mechanical ventilation), and need for medical services in all randomly assigned participants through day 29, and need for respiratory interventions and time to discharge in the subgroup of participants who were hospitalized after randomization. RESULTS: Participants receiving molnupiravir showed faster normalization of CRP and Spo 2, with improvements observed on day 3 of therapy, compared with placebo. Molnupiravir-treated participants had a decreased need for respiratory interventions versus placebo-treated participants (relative risk reduction [RRR], 34.3% [95% CI, 4.3% to 54.9%]), with similar findings in participants who were hospitalized after randomization (RRR, 21.3% [CI, 0.2% to 38.0%]). Hospitalized participants who received molnupiravir were discharged a median of 3 days before those who received placebo. Acute care visits (7.2% vs. 10.6%; RRR, 32.1% [CI, 4.4% to 51.7%]) and COVID-19-related acute care visits (6.6% vs. 10.0%; RRR, 33.8% [CI, 5.6% to 53.6%]) were less frequent in molnupiravir- versus placebo-treated participants. LIMITATIONS: Some analyses were performed post hoc. Longer-term benefits of molnupiravir therapy were not evaluated. Participants were not immunized against SARS-CoV-2. CONCLUSION: The findings suggest there are additional important clinical benefits of molnupiravir beyond reduction in hospitalization or death. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC, a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc.

Molnupiravir for Oral Treatment of Covid-19 in Nonhospitalized Patients.

BACKGROUND: New treatments are needed to reduce the risk of progression of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). Molnupiravir is an oral, small-molecule antiviral prodrug that is active against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). METHODS: We conducted a phase 3, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial to evaluate the efficacy and safety of treatment with molnupiravir started within 5 days after the onset of signs or symptoms in nonhospitalized, unvaccinated adults with mild-to-moderate, laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 and at least one risk factor for severe Covid-19 illness. Participants in the trial were randomly assigned to receive 800 mg of molnupiravir or placebo twice daily for 5 days. The primary efficacy end point was the incidence hospitalization or death at day 29; the incidence of adverse events was the primary safety end point. A planned interim analysis was performed when 50% of 1550 participants (target enrollment) had been followed through day 29. RESULTS: A total of 1433 participants underwent randomization; 716 were assigned to receive molnupiravir and 717 to receive placebo. With the exception of an imbalance in sex, baseline characteristics were similar in the two groups. The superiority of molnupiravir was demonstrated at the interim analysis; the risk of hospitalization for any cause or death through day 29 was lower with molnupiravir (28 of 385 participants [7.3%]) than with placebo (53 of 377 [14.1%]) (difference, -6.8 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -11.3 to -2.4; P = 0.001). In the analysis of all participants who had undergone randomization, the percentage of participants who were hospitalized or died through day 29 was lower in the molnupiravir group than in the placebo group (6.8% [48 of 709] vs. 9.7% [68 of 699]; difference, -3.0 percentage points; 95% CI, -5.9 to -0.1). Results of subgroup analyses were largely consistent with these overall results; in some subgroups, such as patients with evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, those with low baseline viral load, and those with diabetes, the point estimate for the difference favored placebo. One death was reported in the molnupiravir group and 9 were reported in the placebo group through day 29. Adverse events were reported in 216 of 710 participants (30.4%) in the molnupiravir group and 231 of 701 (33.0%) in the placebo group. CONCLUSIONS: Early treatment with molnupiravir reduced the risk of hospitalization or death in at-risk, unvaccinated adults with Covid-19. (Funded by Merck Sharp and Dohme; MOVe-OUT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04575597.).